Grain marketing a key risk-management tool

How planning and timing strengthen drought resilience

As headers roll across north‑west Victoria, growers are not just focusing on yields but planning how best to turn those tonnes into profit. The decisions made as grain heads into storage or on a truck can shape a farm business’s financial resilience well into next season.

The Birchip Cropping Group (BCG), as the north‑west node of the Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption and Innovation Hub (Vic Hub), is putting the spotlight on grain marketing as one of the most effective tools for managing risk and strengthening long‑term business resilience.

A shift from prediction to protection

With pricing volatility shaped by forces well beyond the farm gate, grain marketing has become one of the most influential decisions in Australian broadacre farming. Profitability isn’t secured at harvest – it is protected, or lost, at the point of sale.

The GRDC’s RiskWi$e initiative, led nationally by CSIRO with BCG leading the Victorian Action Research Group, reinforces the value of making business decisions with intention rather than reaction. In grain marketing, this means focusing less on predicting “the top of the market” and more on deliberate strategies that manage downside risk while preserving opportunities.

Storage as a strategic asset

Prices have softened compared with peaks in recent seasons, creating uncertainty about when to sell and how to manage cashflow. Many north‑west Victorian growers, however, are better placed than ever, having invested in on‑farm storage and with bulk handlers offering more flexible warehousing options. Storage now acts as a strategic asset – buying time, improving decision‑making power and supporting profitability through the season.

Managing exposure and balancing risk

Every marketing decision carries a different type of risk. Production uncertainty affects the confidence to forward contract. Cashflow needs apply pressure in challenging seasons. Price movements and global headlines are ongoing reminders of external volatility, while logistics and counter‑party considerations shape how and when grain can move.

Understanding these exposures helps growers tailor marketing plans to their financial position and appetite for risk. A structured, RiskWi$e‑aligned approach links pricing decisions back to breakeven and margin goals, spreads sales over time, and focuses on protecting profit rather than chasing price highs.

Building financial resilience through Vic Hub

BCG’s work through Vic Hub shows that drought resilience is not only about physical production – it is also about financial resilience and timing. Dry seasons compress decision windows and amplify marketing consequences, making planning even more critical. Businesses that secure cashflow ahead of key financial pinch points, use storage flexibly and engage a diverse mix of buyers and pricing tools are better able to withstand market and seasonal pressures.

Keeping decisions disciplined and deliberate

As growers approach the 2025 harvest and plan ahead for 2026, clear profitability triggers and reviewing contract terms early can help maintain momentum, even when markets soften. Monitoring basis changes and local demand can identify timely opportunities. Reflecting on past performance sharpens marketing approaches for future years.

The strongest and most resilient grain businesses are those that treat pricing with the same planning discipline applied to agronomy – actively managing exposure, protecting cashflow and spreading risk to create a buffer against both market volatility and seasonal variability.