Drought model: a deeper explanation of alignment (part 2)

Building drought resilience: aligning with emergency-management principles

 

By Dr Tim Clune, Vic Hub Capacity Building Theme Lead, La Trobe University; Cam Nicholson, Vic Hub SW Node, Southern Farming Systems/Nicon Rural Services; and Te’o Lau Dr Viliamu Iese, Associate Director – Drought Resilience, Vic Hub

 

In part 2 of this blog series, we’ll explore the effectiveness of aligning with emergency-management principles in building drought resilience.

 

Missed part 1? Catch up on ‘Realigning drought models: an explanation of four stages’

 

‘Emergency management’ lens increases decision-making effectiveness

 

Viewing drought resilience through an emergency-management perspective helps farmers and communities make better decisions. Understanding drought’s impacts on individual situations over time is crucial, and consulting with communities fosters reflection on drought, values their experience, and uncovers knowledge gaps.

Collaboratively designing solutions enhances resilience, while introducing new tools and guidance supports better local decision-making for drought readiness. Aligning processes also fosters partnerships between local governments, private sector, farmers, ecosystem-based services, water and financial corporations to mobilise resources and build local capacity.

Aligning the drought model through four phases increases system flexibility to boost resilience against droughts and other hazards, and using the same framework helps the system prepare for, and handle, various hazard scenarios. While hazards vary, local farmers and communities can use the four-stage process to consider risks and make informed decisions crucial for droughts, floods or bushfires. Figure 2 sets out how regional drought resilience is enhanced.

 

Figure 2: Building Drought Resilience Capacity and Capability

 

 

Example of aide-mémoire for a broadacre livestock enterprise

 

In part 1 on realigning drought models, we looked at an aide-mémoire for drought decision-making (see Table 2).

Below here, Table 3 takes this a step further and shows an aide-mémoire for broadacre livestock enterprises. Please note: the table provides general information only for the purposes of focusing attention on the influence of season on farm activity, as influenced by the stage of the climate cycle experienced. Individual circumstances will affect the decisions made.

The example shows considerations gathered from discussions with broadacre livestock enterprises (see Table 3). It’s important to recognise that behind these reminders lies a deep understanding of the farm’s goals and financial capacity to tackle drought.

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Table 3: An Aide-Mémoire for Broadacre Livestock Enterprises

 

Climate cycle	Time of year (season)
	Autumn	Winter	Spring	Summer
Good times	Monitor and manage feed on hand Pasture renovation and weed control Improve soil health Repair and renew assets – fences, machinery etc Review finances and insurance Review farm plan to identify and mitigate drought risks Consider future business plans Review livestock selling / retain priority  Seek external learning opportunities	Additional fertiliser to maximise production Manage possible wet soils Weed control Consider future ag-tech	Late season fertiliser to maximise fodder production Fodder conservation Monitor market conditions for buying / selling options Consider future business plans Review fire plan  Take a holiday	Monitor and manage feed on offer Summer cropping Maintain adequate feed reserves. Review budgets and plans Plan/implement earthworks e Take a holiday
Uncertain period	Understand and monitor climate signals Review anticipated cash flow, inputs and costs Sell livestock according to predetermined list Consider sourcing additional fodder Monitor and manage groundcover to prevent soil loss Monitor water supplies Operate containment areas Experiment with different species (particularly drought-resilient spp) Engage trusted third-party advisers Prepare for unexpected intense rain events Prepare to manage a ‘green drought’	Review anticipated cash flow inputs and costs Adjust feed or stock numbers to maintain condition Use containment to build a feed wedge Supplement feed supply if possible	Review stock containment facilities and logistics Sell livestock according to predetermined list Create a paddock protection / sacrifice list Reconsider fertiliser inputs Prepare feed budgets Manage mental health – family and community Engage / maintain social networks support Review fire plan	Monitor and manage stock to target condition score Monitor and manage groundcover to prevent soil loss Commence containment feeding – ration formulation. Reassess sale of fodder Monitor water supplies Sell livestock according to predetermined list Consider early weaning and management of young stock Engage trusted third-party advisers Prepare drought plan to manage weeds, pastures management, retain soil moisture etc Implement pre determine fire readiness plan Prepared for unexpected intense rain events
Drought	Continue to sell livestock according to predetermined list Manage mental health Participate in social support networks Seek external advice Implement pre-determine fire readiness plan Keep busy with purposeful pursuits (upskilling, sporting activities, seek off-farm job) Plan ‘good times’ recovery Plan for critical inputs – fertiliser, chemical, seed, fuel	Continue to sell livestock according to predetermined list – possible total destocking Manage mental health Participate in social support networks Seek external advice Implement pre-determine fire readiness plan Keep busy with purposeful pursuits (upskilling, sporting activities, seek off-farm job)	Continue to sell livestock according to predetermined list Manage mental health Participate in social support networks Seek external advice Implement pre-determine fire readiness plan Keep busy with purposeful pursuits (upskilling, sporting activities, seek off-farm job) Review fire plan	Continue to sell livestock according to predetermined list Manage mental health Participate in social support networks Seek external advice Implement pre-determine fire readiness plan Keep busy with purposeful pursuits (upskilling, sporting activities, seek off-farm job)
Recovery	Plan for critical inputs – fertiliser, chemical, seed, fuel, soil testing Monitor pasture growth / survival, ground cover to decide when to release stock from containment Sow quick fodder Consider livestock trading for cashflow Budget EOFY – tax loss Consider dry sowing Take a holiday	Maximise pasture growth Minimise further damage to pasture – pugging Reflect on lessons from past drought – continue off farm job? Community activities? Farm staff? Rural financial counsellors? Revisit farm plan and suitability of infrastructure Consider increasing overdraft to capitalise on opportunities Secure forward contracts Budget for next financial year – forward tax losses	Optimise fodder production Consider additional restocking Undertake fodder conservation or purchase Manage unexpected weeds Prepare feed budgets Understand market specifications, prices, trade and demand Review fire plan	Monitor feed on offer and ground cover Review budgets and plans Implement summer cropping cycle Maintain adequate feed reserves. Planning and expenditure on earthworks (farm dams), drainage Consider continuing second income Fire planning / readiness

 

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Wrap up

 

The Victoria Drought Resilience Adoption & Innovation Hub is helping Victorian farmers and communities by changing how they view drought and its local effects. Seeing drought resilience as a proactive, risk-based approach empowers regional communities to find solutions and take effective action.

During uncertain times – such as the Bureau of Meteorology’s El Niño event declaration in September last year – it is crucial to start planning to cope and respond. It’s also important to reflect on actions taken during good times to reduce drought risks at the household (taking in stress and mental health, financing and relationships), business and farming-system levels.

While the information in Table 3 above has been collated for this discussion, the Vic Hub is working with industry stakeholders across our Nodes to create customised aide-mémoires for a variety of regions and enterprises. Stay tuned for updates on these vital resilience tools.